Project Outputs Presented to the Agriculture Donor Coordination Meeting

Crop damage assessment and yield monitoring for winter cereals in Ukraine

An innovative methodology for crop damage assessment and yield monitoring in Ukraine by analyzing satellite imagery using artificial intelligence and machine learning was presented to the donors. It was jointly developed by the National Technical University named after I. Sikorsky and the Institute of Space Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, the Joint Research Center of the European Commission (JRC), and the World Bank, working in close coordination with MAPF. The approach will also contribute to the KSE/FAO-led damage assessment work.

The study found 0.75 mn. ha reduction of winter cereals, which is mostly (86%) due to economy-wide effects like shortages of fuel and other inputs caused indirectly by the war and 14 % due to direct war induced damage to crops and fields. The estimated conflict-induced drop in NDVI for winter cereal translates into a 15% yield reduction or an output loss of 4.2 million tons. The NDVI drop is particularly pronounced for small farms. Taking area and yield reduction together, this suggests a war-induced loss of winter cereals output of 20%, assuming that the full crop can be harvested.

Meeting participants appreciated the timely development and usefulness of the approach and welcomed routine updates, which will be for the summer crops (expected for September 2022).

The PPT presented can be found here:

Crop land use maps are available at the MAPF geoportal and the publication on methodology and findings can be accessed at Quantifying War-Induced Crop Losses in Ukraine in Near Real Time to Strengthen Local and Global Food Security)

Land market legislation

The project team provided on the current status of land market legislation and changes under martial law. See PPT here:

An important finding is also that the transition to electronic auctions, which was launched following the adoption of law #1444 in 2021, is effective, ongoing and is already improving land revenues for local governments, even in the current situation. This law on e-auctions was part of the broader package of land governance reforms laws to allow transparent operation of land markets and land governance, the adoption of which was supported jointly by development partners.

Participants acknowledged the importance of draft law 7386-1, which will establish the basis for transparent, market-based land valuation (in line with EU standards). EU and WB agreed to prepare a letter on this for the relevant parliamentary committee. Participants also requested MAPF to report on progress with implementation of the land-related activities under law 2322-IX on Anti-corruption policy 2021-2.

State Agrarian Registry (SAR) and Project Grant Support for smallholders

MAPF was congratulated on the progress made in deploying the SAR software to register farmers, identify eligible farmers for state support and process grant applications conform to EU procedures. See PPT here:

The launch of the SAR is envisaged for August 2022. The EU supported Project Support Grant (PSG) for smallholders to provide just-in time support and that will use the SAR was also welcomed. The Ministry is considering using the tool to coordinate and administer other emergency and recovery related activities (production, storage etc.). The EU also encouraged partners to channel financial and other state support through the SAR, as it is based on EU best practices, and support the government of Ukraine with the establishment of the SAR as channel for approving and processing farmer support.